Hey everyone, and welcome back to My Weird Prompts. I am Corn, and I am sitting here in our living room in Jerusalem with my brother. It is a bit of a chilly February afternoon here, and the tea is brewing, but the atmosphere feels a little heavy, as it often does in this part of the world when you start looking at the maps.
Herman Poppleberry here. It is good to be back at the microphones. I have been doing a lot of reading lately on some of the more niche corners of aviation data, specifically how the digital infrastructure of the sky mirrors the physical tension on the ground. This topic is right up my alley because it involves decoding systems that were never really meant for the general public to obsess over, yet here we are in February of twenty twenty-six, and these data points are basically the pulse of global stability.
It really is. Today's prompt from Daniel is about Notices to Air Missions, or NOTAMs, and their role in geopolitical conflict and open source intelligence. It is a fascinating angle because we usually think of these as just dry, technical safety alerts—the kind of thing a pilot glances at while drinking lukewarm coffee in a cockpit. But in the last few years, especially with the escalations we have seen across the Middle East and Eastern Europe, they have become a major signal for anyone trying to predict when and where a conflict might move from rhetoric to kinetic action.
Exactly. And I love that Daniel brought this up because it sits at that perfect intersection of aviation, international law, and military strategy. For the uninitiated, a NOTAM is basically a bulletin issued by an aviation authority to alert pilots of potential hazards along a flight route or at a specific location that could affect the safety of the flight. Now, the history here is actually quite long. The system was modeled after the "Notice to Mariners" which goes back centuries, but for aviation, it was formalized around nineteen forty-seven under the International Civil Aviation Organization, or ICAO. It could be anything from a broken light on a runway to a massive rocket launch. But when you start seeing them issued by countries like Iran, Russia, or China over sensitive areas, they take on a whole new meaning.
Right, and I think we should start with the most basic question. Why are these public? If a country is planning a military operation, or even just a sensitive test, why on earth would they tell the world about it through a standardized aviation notice? It seems counterintuitive if you are trying to maintain the element of surprise. Why not just keep it secret and hope no one flies through?
That is the big question, isn't it? The primary reason is actually quite pragmatic: it is about liability, international law, and safety. Even in the middle of a heated geopolitical standoff, no one wants to accidentally shoot down a civilian airliner. We have seen the international outcry and the devastating human cost when that happens—think of Malaysia Airlines Flight seventeen over Ukraine in twenty fourteen, or Ukraine International Airlines Flight seven hundred fifty-two over Tehran in early twenty twenty. Those events changed the calculus for everyone. Issuing a NOTAM provides a legal and safety buffer. Under the Chicago Convention, states are responsible for the safety of navigation in their airspace. By issuing a NOTAM, a country says, "We told you this airspace was dangerous, so if you fly here, the legal and moral responsibility for any accident is shifted." It is a way to avoid being labeled a pariah state while still conducting military activities.
So it is a "enter at your own risk" sign. But it is also a signal to the adversary, right? If I am a military analyst and I see a NOTAM issued for a huge chunk of the desert in western Iran for a forty-eight-hour window, I am not just thinking about flight safety. I am thinking, okay, they are preparing for a missile test, a drone launch, or maybe a full-scale strike.
Precisely. And that is where the open source intelligence, or OSINT, community comes in. People who track these things on platforms like X or specialized aviation forums are looking for patterns. A single NOTAM about a closed taxiway in Des Moines is noise. A series of NOTAMs covering strategic corridors, synchronized with high-level diplomatic tension? That is a signal. It is a way of "telegraphing" intent without necessarily making a formal declaration of war. It is a form of communication between states that happens in the "gray zone."
It reminds me of the buildup to the Iranian strikes on Israel that we saw back in April of twenty twenty-four. I remember that night vividly. There was this period of "NOTAM watch" where everyone was refreshing the databases to see if the airspace over Tehran or Isfahan had been restricted. When Jordan and Iraq suddenly issued NOTAMs closing their entire airspace, we knew the drones were already in the air. It creates this weird, digital countdown to a physical event.
It really does. And what is interesting is how the interpretation of these signals has evolved. It is not just about whether a NOTAM exists, but the specific details within it. To really understand it, you have to look at the "Q-line." Every NOTAM has a "Q" code, which is a string of characters that tells you the nature of the hazard. It is a five-letter code. The first letter is always Q. The second and third letters identify the subject being reported, and the fourth and fifth letters identify the condition. For example, if you see "QWMLW," the "WM" stands for "missile" and the "LW" stands for "launch." If you see "QAREP," that is an "airspace reservation." Seeing a code for "aerial combat maneuvers" or "missile firing" is a very different vibe than seeing "QOLAS," which just means an obstacle like a crane near the airport.
I want to dig into that technical side a bit more, but first, let's talk about the "noise" problem. I read somewhere that the NOTAM system is actually kind of a mess. There are thousands of them issued every day, many of them for trivial things. How do analysts actually find the "geopolitical" NOTAMs in a sea of broken lightbulbs and closed taxiways?
You are hitting on a major pain point in the aviation world. In fact, back in early twenty twenty-three, the entire FAA NOTAM system in the United States crashed, grounding thousands of flights. It highlighted how fragile and antiquated the system was. There has been a massive push recently to "fix" the NOTAM system because pilots were getting overwhelmed by hundreds of pages of irrelevant information. They even changed the name from "Notice to Airmen" to "Notice to Air Missions" in late twenty twenty-one to be more inclusive and reflect the rise of drones and commercial space flight. But the underlying technology is still very old-school. It is mostly text-based, often in all caps, and uses a lot of abbreviations that look like gibberish to the average person.
So, it is like trying to read a telegraph from nineteen fifty.
Basically! To filter the noise, professional OSINT analysts and military intelligence units use automated scripts and AI filters. They are looking for specific keywords or geographic coordinates that overlap with known military sites or disputed borders. For example, if a NOTAM is issued for the South China Sea in a zone where China has been building artificial islands, that is going to trigger an alert immediately. The context is everything. Analysts also look for "unusual" durations. Most military exercises are scheduled well in advance. If a NOTAM appears with "effective immediately" or covers a massive altitude range—like from zero to "unlimited"—that is a red flag.
Let's talk about the "false alarm" aspect. Daniel mentioned that sometimes these are issued and nothing happens. Is that a deliberate tactic? Like, "crying wolf" to keep the adversary on edge or to see how they react?
Oh, absolutely. This is a classic move in the "gray zone" of conflict. If you issue a NOTAM for a major missile test every week for a month but only actually fire a rocket once, you are doing a few things. First, you are desensitizing your opponent. They might stop taking the notices as seriously, which could give you back the element of surprise later. Second, you are forcing them to burn resources. Every time a NOTAM goes up, the other side might scramble reconnaissance planes, move their satellite coverage, or put their air defenses on high alert. That is expensive and exhausting. It is a way to "probe" the enemy's response times and patterns without actually starting a war.
It is psychological warfare played out in the metadata of the global aviation system. That is wild. It is also a way to exercise "sovereignty" without firing a shot. If you can successfully keep civilian traffic out of an area just by posting a notice, you are effectively controlling that space.
That is a great point, Corn. We see this a lot in the Black Sea and around Taiwan. By declaring "danger zones" for military exercises, a country can de facto block shipping lanes or flight paths. It is a way of saying, "This is our backyard," without having to maintain a constant physical blockade. The NOTAM is the legal instrument that makes the intimidation look like a safety precaution. In the Taiwan Strait, for instance, the placement of NOTAMs often mirrors the "median line" or pushes just past it to test the political waters.
So, for someone following this from home, how should they interpret a sudden flurry of NOTAMs? If I see a post on social media saying "Iran has issued a NOTAM for the entire western half of the country," should I be heading for the bomb shelter?
Well, the first rule of NOTAM watch is: don't panic until you see the "effective time" and the "vertical limits." A lot of people see a notice and assume it means "right now." But often, these are scheduled days in advance. You also want to look at the "lower" and "upper" limits, which are usually listed in flight levels. If the restricted altitude only goes up to ten thousand feet, it is probably for drones, small-arms training, or even just a local festival with fireworks. If it goes to "unlimited," or flight level nine hundred ninety-nine, that is when you start thinking about ballistic missiles, satellite launches, or high-altitude interceptors.
And what about the source? Are all NOTAMs created equal?
Not at all. You have to consider the credibility of the issuing authority. Some countries use them very strictly for safety. Others use them as a diplomatic megaphone. During the buildup to the invasion of Ukraine in early twenty twenty-two, Russia issued a series of NOTAMs that were incredibly specific and expansive, covering huge swaths of the Black Sea and the border regions. Analysts pointed to those as one of the clearest signs that this wasn't just another exercise. They were essentially clearing the board so they could move their pieces. If the NOTAM comes from a country with a history of using them for signaling, you weigh it differently than a NOTAM from, say, Switzerland.
It is like a chess game where one player starts clearing the spectators away from the table. You know something big is coming. But there is also the risk of "spoofing" or misinformation, right? Could a country issue a NOTAM to cover up something else?
Definitely. You could issue a NOTAM for a "search and rescue exercise" in one area to draw attention away from a covert naval movement in another. Or, you could use the absence of a NOTAM as a signal. If a country usually issues notices for every little thing but then suddenly stops before a major event, that silence is itself a piece of intelligence. It suggests they are prioritizing surprise over safety or legal cover, which usually means the stakes have moved from "signaling" to "execution."
This brings us to the OSINT side of things. How has the rise of tools like FlightRadar twenty-four and ADS-B Exchange changed the way we look at NOTAMs? Because now, we can see in real-time if airlines are actually obeying the notices.
This is where it gets really fun for the data nerds. You can have a NOTAM saying "Airspace Closed," but then you look at FlightRadar twenty-four and see a major international flight cruising right through it. That tells you either the NOTAM isn't being enforced, or the airline's security department has determined the threat is low. Conversely, if you see a sudden "hole" in the global flight map where there are usually hundreds of planes, and then you find a NOTAM that matches that hole, you have confirmed the signal. It is a feedback loop. We saw this during the Red Sea crisis in twenty twenty-four and twenty twenty-five. As Houthi rebels targeted shipping, the aviation notices for the region became incredibly complex, and you could see the "flow" of global traffic shifting in real-time to avoid those zones.
I remember seeing that during the early days of the conflict in Sudan as well. The NOTAMs were coming out in real-time as the airport in Khartoum was being fought over. You could literally watch the planes divert and the airspace go dark as the notices were being hit. It felt like we were watching history happen through a series of blinking dots and text files.
It is a very visceral way to experience global events. And it is worth noting that NOTAMs aren't just for countries. Private companies like SpaceX issue them all the time for rocket launches. In fact, the "space" side of NOTAMs is becoming a huge sub-field. When a booster is going to fall back to earth, they have to clear a "splashdown zone" in the ocean. If you see a NOTAM for the middle of the Atlantic that matches the orbital path of a secret military satellite, you can do some pretty good guesswork about what is being launched and when.
So, if we are looking at this as a tool for the average person who wants to be better informed, what are the "red flags" to watch for?
I would say there are four main things. First, look for "unlimited" altitude restrictions in areas that aren't usually active. Second, look for NOTAMs that are issued with very short notice—what we call "effective immediately." That usually indicates an emergency or a sudden tactical shift. Third, look for coordination. If three different countries in the same region—like Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon—all issue overlapping notices at the same time, something is being coordinated behind the scenes. And fourth, look for "GPS interference" warnings.
Oh, let's talk about that. GPS interference is a huge one lately, especially in the Baltic region and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Exactly. In the last two years, we have seen a massive spike in NOTAMs warning pilots about "GPS spoofing" or "jamming." This is a huge part of modern electronic warfare. If you see a NOTAM for GPS interference, you know there is a jamming unit nearby, which usually means there is something very important nearby that someone wants to protect from GPS-guided drones or missiles. It is a public admission that the electronic environment is "hot."
It is like a symphony where you are only allowed to see the sheet music for the percussion section. You have to infer the rest of the melody.
That is a perfect analogy. And sometimes the percussion is very loud! But we also have to talk about the limitations. One of the biggest issues with using NOTAMs as OSINT is that they can be "stale." Sometimes a notice is issued, the event is cancelled, but the notice stays in the system for days because the bureaucracy is slow. If you are just looking at the database, you might think a zone is still active when it is actually empty. This is why you always cross-reference with satellite imagery or live flight tracking.
And there is also the "language" barrier. Even though English is the international language of aviation, the way different countries phrase things can vary. A "danger area" in one country might mean something different than a "prohibited area" in another.
Exactly. Let's break those down because they are often confused. A "prohibited area," marked as "P" on charts, is the most serious—it is usually permanent, like the airspace over the White House or a nuclear power plant. You fly there, you get intercepted. A "restricted area," or "R," is often active only at certain times for things like artillery practice. And a "danger area," or "D," is the one we see most in international waters or conflicts. It is basically the country saying, "We are doing something dangerous here, and while we can't legally stop you from flying in international airspace, you really shouldn't." It is a subtle but important legal distinction. In a "danger area," the responsibility for safety is on the pilot, not the state.
I wonder about the future of this. As we get more AI involved in analyzing these feeds, will it become harder for countries to use NOTAMs as a "gray zone" tactic? Because an AI will see through the "crying wolf" pattern much faster than a human will.
That is a really interesting thought. Imagine an AI that is trained on forty years of NOTAM data and can say, "There is a ninety-five percent chance this is a bluff based on the previous twelve times this specific military district issued this specific code." That changes the stakes for the person issuing the notice. They might have to actually fire a missile just to keep their "credibility" high in the data model. It is a weird, futuristic version of game theory where the players are trying to fool the algorithms as much as the humans.
It also makes me think about the "democratization" of intelligence. Twenty years ago, only people in a SCIF—a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility—knew about these notices in real-time. Now, a teenager in his bedroom in Ohio can see the same data as a general in the Pentagon. Does that make the world safer because there are more eyes on it, or more dangerous because of the risk of misinterpretation and panic?
It is a double-edged sword, for sure. On one hand, it is harder for governments to lie when the data is public. If a country says "we didn't launch anything," but there is a NOTAM and a corresponding heat signature on a satellite map, the world knows. On the other hand, we have seen how "NOTAM Twitter" can work itself into a frenzy over nothing. Someone sees a notice for a routine flare test or a weather balloon and suddenly the "World War Three" hashtags are trending. That kind of viral panic can have real-world consequences, from stock market dips to diplomatic incidents.
It can affect markets, too. Oil prices can jump based on a single misinterpreted aviation notice in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oh, absolutely. The financial world is very tuned into this. High-frequency trading algorithms are definitely scraping these feeds for keywords. If you can trade on the news of a potential conflict ten seconds before the general public sees it on the news, you can make a lot of money. We are seeing a convergence of aviation safety, military strategy, and global finance all happening in these short, capitalized text strings.
So, we have this ancient, text-based system that was designed to tell pilots about flocks of birds or broken lights, and now it is being used by military analysts, OSINT hobbyists, and Wall Street algorithms to predict the next war. It is such a weird, accidental evolution.
It really is. And it speaks to a larger trend where the "exhaust data" of our modern systems—the stuff that is just meant to keep the gears turning—becomes a primary source of intelligence. Everything leaves a footprint. If you move a ship, you change the AIS signal. If you launch a plane, you change the ADS-B signal. And if you want to do it safely and legally, you have to issue a NOTAM. In the twenty-first century, it is almost impossible to be a "silent" actor on the global stage.
I think we should talk a bit about some specific historical examples where NOTAMs were the "smoking gun." You mentioned the invasion of Ukraine, but what about earlier? Was this a thing during the Cold War?
It was, but it was much harder to access. You had to be a pilot or a dispatcher to see the "teletype" feeds. But there were definitely instances where the U.S. and the Soviet Union would use "Navigational Warnings"—which are the maritime equivalent of NOTAMs—to signal intent. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in nineteen sixty-two, the "quarantine" zone was essentially one giant navigational warning. It was a way of saying, "Here is the line in the water, do not cross it." The logic hasn't changed, just the speed and accessibility of the data.
I am curious, Herman, you mentioned the "Q-codes" earlier. Can you give us a few more examples of what those actually look like? Just so the listeners can get a sense of the "secret language" when they see these posted online.
Sure! So, a NOTAM starts with a series of fields. Field A is the location, like "OIIX" for Tehran's flight information region or "EGTT" for London. Field B and C are the start and end times in UTC. But the "Q-line" is the core. It looks something like "Q) OIIX / QWMLW / IV / BO / W / zero zero zero / nine nine nine."
Okay, you lost me. Break that down one more time.
Right! So "QWMLW" is the code. The "W" stands for "Warning." The "ML" stands for "Missile." And the "W" at the end often refers to a "launch" or "exercise." If you see "QRPCA," the "RP" stands for "Remotely Piloted Aircraft," which means drones. "QRDCA" is a "danger area" being activated. "QAFXX" is a general "flight information region" warning. Once you learn the "alphabet soup," you can read a NOTAM in about five seconds and know exactly how worried you should be. There are even codes for things like "volcanic ash" or "nuclear radiation," which obviously carry their own geopolitical weight.
That is fascinating. It is like learning a new language that only exists in the margins of flight manuals.
And it is a language that is constantly evolving. As new technology comes out, they have to invent new codes. There are now specific codes for "GPS interference" or "jamming," which is something we are seeing a lot of in Eastern Europe and the Middle East lately. Pilots are reporting that their navigation systems are being spoofed, and the authorities have to issue NOTAMs to warn other pilots that "hey, your GPS might tell you that you are in the middle of the ocean when you are actually over a city." This is a huge safety issue, but for an analyst, it is a map of where electronic warfare units are operating.
We have talked about that before—the "spoofing" around Ben Gurion Airport here in Israel. It is another layer of this "electronic warfare" that shows up in the NOTAM system. If you see a NOTAM for GPS interference, you know there is a jamming unit nearby, which usually means there is something very important nearby that someone wants to protect from drones.
Exactly. It is all connected. The NOTAM is the public "symptom" of a private military action. And for the OSINT community, it is about connecting those symptoms to form a diagnosis. It is like being a doctor for the planet, looking at these little digital rashes and fever spikes to figure out if a war is about to break out.
So, as we wrap this up, what are the big takeaways for our listeners? If they want to be "NOTAM literate," where should they start?
First, I would say follow some of the reputable OSINT accounts that specialize in aviation. They do the hard work of filtering the noise for you. Second, if you do look at a raw NOTAM, don't get distracted by the abbreviations. Look for the "Plain Language" section at the bottom. Most modern notices will have a summary that says something like "DANGER AREA DUE TO MILITARY EXERCISES." And third, always check the map. A NOTAM is just a set of coordinates. If you plot those coordinates and they happen to sit right over a disputed border, a major naval base, or a sensitive nuclear site, that is when you should pay attention.
It is about spatial awareness. Not just where the notice is, but what it is covering.
Exactly. And remember that a NOTAM is a "declaration," not necessarily a "fact." It tells you what a country wants the world to believe is happening in their airspace. Sometimes the truth is exactly that, and sometimes it is a very elaborate distraction. In the world of intelligence, what someone wants you to see is often just as important as what they are trying to hide.
It is a fascinating window into how the world works, Herman. It is one of those things that is hidden in plain sight. We all see the planes in the sky, but we don't think about the invisible "fences" and "warning signs" that are being put up and taken down every hour.
It is the "invisible architecture" of the sky. And in a world that feels increasingly volatile in twenty twenty-six, understanding that architecture is more important than ever. It gives us a bit of an "early warning system" for the geopolitical shifts that affect us all. It turns the sky from a blank blue space into a complex grid of intent and caution.
Well, I think we have thoroughly deconstructed the NOTAM. It is definitely more than just a broken lightbulb notice.
Far more. It is a diplomatic cable, a tactical warning, and a legal shield, all wrapped in a forty-year-old text format that somehow still runs the world.
Thanks, Herman. I feel like I am going to be checking the flight maps with a lot more scrutiny tonight, especially given everything happening in the region.
Just don't let it keep you up too late, Corn. Most of the time, it really is just a broken light on a runway or a crane in a flight path.
Most of the time! But it is that other five percent that keeps things interesting. And hey, if you have been enjoying "My Weird Prompts," we would really appreciate it if you could leave us a review on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. It genuinely helps other people find the show, and we love hearing what you think about these deep dives.
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This has been a great one. Thanks to Daniel for the prompt, and thanks to all of you for listening. We will see you next time.
Until next time! Keep your eyes on the skies—and the notices. Goodbye!
Bye everyone.
