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#2145: Why the Money Beats the Machines on Ceasefires
In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...
#2144: AI Wargaming: One Model or Many?
Should geopolitical AI simulations use one model or many? We debate the pros and cons of a single-model approach.
#2143: AI Forecast: Iran Ceasefire Won't Last
A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.
#2142: How Subagents Tell the Orchestrator They're Done
We break down the plumbing that lets a parent agent know exactly when a subagent finishes, from message passing to lifecycle events.
#2141: Durable Agents: The Backend Tax
Why building AI agents means managing infrastructure. We explore durable execution backends like Temporal and AWS Step Functions.
#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027
By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.
#2139: AI Wargame Memory: Beyond the Context Window
Why simply extending context windows fails in multi-agent simulations, and how layered memory architectures preserve strategic fidelity.
#2138: Housing as National Defense in Israel
Why Israel's next election might focus on apartment prices instead of missiles—and how organizers are reframing housing as a security issue.
#2137: Wargaming's Methodology, Not Magic
Most AI wargames are just expensive role-play. Here's the professional methodology they're missing.
#2136: The Brutal Problem of AI Wargame Evaluation
Most AI wargame simulations skip evaluation entirely or rely on token expert reviews. This is the field's biggest credibility problem.