Geopolitics
International affairs, defense, intelligence, and regional conflicts
Power struggles between nations, shifting alliances, proxy wars, and the strategic calculations that shape our world. This channel tackles the big-picture forces driving international affairs — from great-power competition and intelligence operations to regional flashpoints — with a particular focus on the Middle East and its ripple effects across the globe.
#2176: Geopol Forecast: How will the Iran-Israel war evolve following the failure of...
A geopolitical simulation reveals why the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire is a "loaded spring"—and what happens when it breaks in the next 10 days.
#2159: When the State Protects Politicians, Not People
A family sheltering from Iranian missiles while their government issues parking tickets and funds sectarian interests raises a brutal question: has...
#2156: Think Tank Funding and the Art of Academic Laundering
Foreign governments are funding U.S. think tanks through complex financial networks to shape policy, often bypassing transparency laws.
#2154: Iran's Shadow Architecture Beyond Missiles
Iran's power isn't just military proxies. Discover the hidden financial, religious, and diplomatic networks that keep Tehran relevant.
#2151: The Minefield of Information
The Strait of Hormuz is "open," but Iran can’t find its mines. We explore how this fog of war is a deliberate tactic.
#2149: Pakistan's Two-Track Diplomacy
Pakistan hosts US-Iran peace talks while its Defense Minister calls Israel a "cancerous state."
#2148: IRGC: From Street Militia to Regional Franchise
How did Iran's IRGC evolve from a domestic "People's Army" into a franchiser of militias across the Middle East?
#2147: Israel's New Axis: Beyond Washington
Forget the US map: Israel's real 2026 allies are in the Gulf and India.
#2145: Why the Money Beats the Machines on Ceasefires
In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...
#2143: AI Forecast: Iran Ceasefire Won't Last
A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.
#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027
By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.
#2138: Housing as National Defense in Israel
Why Israel's next election might focus on apartment prices instead of missiles—and how organizers are reframing housing as a security issue.
#2131: In-Q-Tel's Open-Source Wargames
In-Q-Tel is on GitHub. Explore the IC's strategic investment arm and its use of open-source AI for wargaming.
#2130: A Ceasefire in Tehran: Who Wins the Peace?
A ceasefire in Tehran: peace or prelude to chaos? Our experts predict the next 30 days of war, markets, and revolution.
#2128: The Victory Siren Sounds, But the Shelter Door Is Still Open
After a ceasefire announcement, why are Israelis still running to bomb shelters? The gap between official victory narratives and lived reality.
#2122: Israel’s Pivot: From Europe to the Middle East
The April 2026 conflict may have ended the "island strategy" for Israel, sparking a shift toward deep regional integration.
#2121: Russia's Arms to Iran: Israel's Paradox
Satellite imagery reveals Russian S-300 systems guarding Iran's Fordow site, reshaping Middle East security.
#2120: The 14-Day Ceasefire: A Tactical Halt, Not Peace
A 14-day "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran is underway, but experts call it a tactical timeout, not a resolution. Here's why.
#2119: Will Iran's Regime Collapse in a Year?
We break down the gap between headlines and reality in Tehran after the ceasefire and Khamenei's death.
#2118: Why a 14-Day Ceasefire Isn't Peace—It's a Reload
A ceasefire isn't peace; it's a technical timeout for factories and logistics. Here’s why both sides are racing to reload.