Friday, Apr 10

#2148: IRGC: From Street Militia to Regional Franchise

How did Iran's IRGC evolve from a domestic "People's Army" into a franchiser of militias across the Middle East?

irgciranhybrid-warfare

#2147: Israel's New Axis: Beyond Washington

Forget the US map: Israel's real 2026 allies are in the Gulf and India.

israelgeopoliticsinternational-relations

#2146: The AI Wargame's Flat Hierarchy Problem

AI wargames treat NGOs and nuclear powers as equals. That's a dangerous flaw for real-world policy planning.

ai-agentsgeopolitical-strategymilitary-strategy

#2145: Why the Money Beats the Machines on Ceasefires

In April 2026, AI wargames predicted a 55% chance of the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding, while prediction markets priced it at 68%. Here's why the g...

geopolitical-strategyprediction-marketscausal-modeling

#2144: AI Wargaming: One Model or Many?

Should geopolitical AI simulations use one model or many? We debate the pros and cons of a single-model approach.

ai-agentsgeopoliticsmilitary-strategy
Thursday, Apr 9

#2143: AI Forecast: Iran Ceasefire Won't Last

A two-stage AI pipeline predicted a 4% chance the Iran-Israel ceasefire would survive a month, using Monte Carlo simulations and an LLM council.

iranisraelai-forecasting

#2142: How Subagents Tell the Orchestrator They're Done

We break down the plumbing that lets a parent agent know exactly when a subagent finishes, from message passing to lifecycle events.

ai-agentsconversational-aianthropic

#2141: Durable Agents: Choosing the Right Backend

Why building AI agents means managing infrastructure. We explore durable execution backends like Temporal and AWS Step Functions.

ai-agentsdistributed-systemscloud-computing

#2140: A Functional Chaos: Middle East 2027

By 2027, the Middle East is reshaped by the Islamabad Truce. We predict the rise of the Council of Five in Iran and the Negev tech migration.

geopoliticsisraeliran

#2139: AI Wargame Memory: Beyond the Context Window

Why simply extending context windows fails in multi-agent simulations, and how layered memory architectures preserve strategic fidelity.

ai-agentsai-memoryvector-databases

#2138: Housing as National Defense in Israel

Why Israel's next election might focus on apartment prices instead of missiles—and how organizers are reframing housing as a security issue.

israelurban-planningnational-security

#2137: Wargaming's Methodology, Not Magic

Most AI wargames are just expensive role-play. Here's the professional methodology they're missing.

military-strategyai-agentsgeopolitics

#2136: The Brutal Problem of AI Wargame Evaluation

Most AI wargame simulations skip evaluation entirely or rely on token expert reviews. This is the field's biggest credibility problem.

ai-safetymilitary-strategyai-agents

#2135: Is Your AI Wargame Signal or Noise?

Monte Carlo methods promise statistical rigor for AI wargaming, but the line between genuine insight and sampling noise is thinner than you think.

ai-agentsmilitary-strategyai-safety

#2134: The Fog-of-War Problem in AI Wargaming

Why shared AI brains make secret-keeping a nightmare, and the four architectural patterns researchers use to fix it.

ai-agentsmilitary-strategydata-integrity

#2133: Engineering Geopolitical Personas: Beyond Caricatures

How to build LLMs that simulate state actors with strategic fidelity, not just surface mimicry.

ai-agentsprompt-engineeringrag

#2132: Building Geopolitical Sandboxes in a Live-News World

Why do AI war games need a news blackout? We dissect the firewall that keeps LLM actors from cheating with real-world data.

geopolitical-strategyai-agentssituational-awareness

#2131: In-Q-Tel's Open-Source Wargames

In-Q-Tel is on GitHub. Explore the IC's strategic investment arm and its use of open-source AI for wargaming.

open-sourceai-agentsespionage

#2130: A Ceasefire in Tehran: Who Wins the Peace?

A ceasefire in Tehran: peace or prelude to chaos? Our experts predict the next 30 days of war, markets, and revolution.

irangeopoliticsmilitary-strategy

#2129: Building the Anti-Hallucination Stack

Stop hoping your AI doesn't lie. We explore the shift to deterministic guardrails, specialized judge models, and the tools making agents reliable.

ai-agentshallucinationsrag